August 9, 2017: North Korea: Red Lines Crossed, Threats Intensify "If they do not now accept our terms, they may expect a rain of ruin from the air,
the like of which has never been seen on this earth."
- Truman, August 6, 1945 "They will be met with fire and fury the likes of which this world has never seen before..."
- Trump, August 8, 2017
Within hours of Trump's "fire and fury" warning, North Korea announced it was "carefully examining" plans to launch 4 missiles toward Guam.
Could we be seeing the confluence of events that bookends a 72-year hiatus with another nuclear bombing in Asia?
August 8: The Washington Post is reporting that a 'confidential assessment' by the "intelligence community" that Kim has already miniaturized his bombs, that he has as many as 60 nukes, that he's scaling up his ICBM missile production... in other words, red lines crossed.
Senator Lindsay Graham, Aug 1, 2017:
Trump has "got to choose between homeland security and regional stability... If there's going to be a war to stop [Kim Jong Un], it will be over there. If thousands die, they're going to die over there. They're not going to die here. And [Trump's] told me that to my face. That may be provocative, but not really. When you're president of the United States, where does your allegiance lie? To the people of the United States." (source)
So here we stand on the brink of nuclear hostilities. Note that the nuclear weapons state with the smallest arsenal and a barely functioning ICBM is still an existential threat, even to the country with the largest arsenal and the most advanced delivery systems on the planet.
It seems that the nuclear weapon is most useful to the smallest power, transforming it from a military gnat into a lethal danger to even the most powerful states.
One would think that it would be in the interest of the powerful country to seek the complete removal of nuclear weapons from the picture. ASAP. But in fact, given the opportunity- of the Ban Treaty negotiations for example- the US has refused to have anything to do with any such effort. ("We do not intend to sign, ratify or ever become party to it.") Instead, a trillion dollar renewal and 'modernization' of our nuclear forces is planned.
Where does that road lead?
July 28: UCS: North Korean ICBM in latest test appears able to reach major US cities, including New York
Union of Concerned Scientists Reports that, like the previous test on July 8, North Korea launched its missile on a highly lofted trajectory; a standard intercontinental trajectory, accounting for the Earth's rotation, would give it range to hit New York City, and only 100 kilometers short of Washington DC. (see full UCS report).
July 4, 2017: North Korea Finally Tests an ICBM
"As with most of North Korea's recent long-range missile tests, this one used a so-called "lofted" trajectory to keep the missile from overflying neighboring countries while still demonstrating high performance. If the data is correct, preliminary trajectory reconstructions indicate that if the missile were fired on a more efficient trajectory it would reach a range of anywhere from 6,700 to 8,000 km. David Wright, who provided the 6,700 km figure, acknowledges that his early analysis did not include the effect of the Earth's rotation and the performance would probably be higher if the missile were launched in an easterly direction. The United States, of course, is to the east of North Korea. By any standard, this is the performance of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Fired from North Korea, it probably couldn't reach the contiguous United States, but Hawaii and Alaska would be within reach." - John Schilling, 38North.org
June 2017: How to Deal With North Korea There are no good options. But some are worse than others.
This is a detailed long-form report from Mark Bowden at The Atlantic. It's well worth the read; - or you can listen to a sonorous voice patiently read the whole thing to you (recommended) via Soundcloud. The "no-good options"? Prevention (first strike); Turning the Screws; Decapitation; Acceptance.
Read all about each.
May 14, 2017: North Korea's Latest Missile Test: Advancing towards an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) While Avoiding US Military Action
"North Korea's latest successful missile test represents a level of performance never before seen from a North Korean missile. The missile would have flown a distance of some 4,500 kilometers if launched on a maximum trajectory. It appears to have not only demonstrated an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that might enable them to reliably strike the US base at Guam, but more importantly, may represent a substantial advance to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)." (John Schilling, 38North.org)
The high altitude reached by the Hwasong-12 missile (1300+ miles) allowed the DPRK to test the first two stages of the three-stage missile, as well as the performance on atmospheric re-entry of the 3rd-stage warhead vehicle- a key hurdle in developing a true ICBM capable of reaching the North American continent. The steep trajectory of the test meant that the missile did not land anywhere near neighboring countries.
- North Korea's Latest Missile Test: Advancing towards an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
(ICBM) While Avoiding US Military Action
- North Korea Missile Test Appears to Tiptoe Over a U.S. Tripwire
- A Quick Technical Analysis of the Hwasong-12
Military parade, Pyongyang, on the 105th anniversary of founder's birth, April 14, 2017.
North Korea threatens nuclear war if US strikes
As the US war fleet approaches, Pyongyang stages huge military parade, showing off new ICBMs - as yet untested- capable of reaching North America, submarine launched missiles, and mobile launch platforms.
April 15, William Perry: How to Make a Deal With North Korea Escalating tensions have made a diplomatic solution possible.
It might be the last chance we have.
"The latest provocation came on Saturday, when the Democratic People's Republic launched a missile after U.S. warnings not to do so. (The missile reportedly blew up almost immediately.) But, paradoxically, these same escalating conditions have also paved the way for a new diplomatic solution. Let's hope the administration will see this opportunity and seize it.
"It's important to understand just what dangers we are trying to mitigate..." (read on)
April 14, China foreign minister Wang Yi:
"One has the feeling that a conflict could break out at any moment. I think that all relevant parties should be highly vigilant with regards to this situation...We call on all parties to refrain from provoking and threatening each other, whether in words or actions, and not let the situation get to an irreversible and unmanageable stage." (ref: BBC)
2017: Crunch Time Approaching on North Korea Recent events:
- Last year, North Korea tested a submarine launched missile. 3 weeks ago, a solid-fuel rocket.
- The new Trump administration began examining it's options for dealing with the DPRK, including the military, including possible regime decapitation.
- Kim Jong-Nam, half brother of the North Korean ruler, an advocate of reform once seen as an alternative to Kim Jong-Un who has been living under Chinese protection in Macau, was assassinated by DPRK agents using VX at the Kuala Lumpur airport while traveling incognito.
- The Times reports the US under Obama had been conducting a cyber and electronic warfare effort against North Korea. (ref)
March 6, 2017:
- During US-South Korean military exercises, North Korea launched 4 intermediate range missiles (photo above) toward Japan; this range can reach US forces in Japan and other regional bases.
- Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD missile defense: deployment begins in South Korea, over Chinese objections.
The KN-08 intercontinental missile is thought to be capable of reaching all targets in the continental US. (ref)
March 8, 2017: China Alarmed, Says DPRK Should Stop All Bomb and Missile Tests, US-South Korea Should Cease Military Exercises
"The United States and North Korea are set for a "head-on collision" with neither side willing to give way, China's top diplomat has warned.
In a week of heightened tensions in the region, Foreign Minister Wang Yi cautioned the US in unusually frank language against the deployment of a controversial missile defense system in South Korea. The system is vehemently opposed by China.
But he also had strong words for North Korea, saying Pyonyang should suspend its nuclear weapons program.
"'The two sides are like two accelerating trains coming towards each other,' Wang told reporters in Beijing. 'The question is, are the two sides really ready for a head-on collision?'" ("US and North Korea set for 'head-on collision', China warns" - CNN)
2016: North Korea Increases Pace of Missile, Nuke Testing... What's Next?
For years whenever the North Korean dictator set off an atom bomb, or tested a missile, or threatened a nuclear attack on the US, the narrative was that he was just trying to get the world's attention, maybe get a foreign aide deal. By now though it is clear that whatever the motivations were a decade ago, the North Korean regime under Kim Jong-Un is going for a nuclear force capable of striking the United States. Recent DPRK claims, though perhaps exaggerated, point the direction ahead: thermonuclear weapons, miniaturization of weapons for long-range missile delivery, the development of a strategic submarine fleet. Once DPRK has the military capability to launch a nuclear missile attack on the US from submarine platforms, the empty threats are not so empty anymore, and it might be assumed that the US would have to take action. One might also assume that China, desiring to be the arbiter and dominant power in East Asia, would rather be the one to deal with the North Korea problem- better than sitting back and letting the US demonstrate a continuing pre-eminence in the region.
While the US cannot afford to ignore Mr Kim's threats once he has obtained the ability to carry them out, Kim's game vis-a-vis the US is likely deterrence, rather than the pre-emptive attack he has sometimes threatened. Kim may not be quite that crazy. Instead, he may be imagining that the DPRK could invade the South, gloriously expelling the foreigners and uniting the Korean homeland- so long as he can deter the US from intervening by holding US and Japanese cities under nuclear threat.
This year's US-South Korean military exercises currently underway for the first time include practice in hitting the nuclear sites and command and control centers in the North. This is serious planning, not 'sending a message', though it is likely we'd want the Chinese to take note and redouble their efforts to 'solve' the North Korea problem from their side. Time is running out.
- Toronto Star, March 9:Kim claims North Korea can put miniaturized atomic bombs on missiles
- FPIF, April 15: North Korea's New Rocket Technology Looks Like It's for Real:
New missiles could reach US East Coast by 2020.
- WaPo April 23: North's Successful Test of Submarine
Launched Missile Confirmed by Seoul - NYTimes May 7:As North Korea's Nuclear Program Advances, U.S. Strategy Is Tested
"After years of trying to separate fact from propaganda about North Korea's nuclear program, American and South Korean intelligence officials say they have concluded that the country can now mount a small nuclear warhead on short and medium-range missiles capable of hitting much of Japan and South Korea..." (story, NYTimes) - May 2016, Mr. Kim at the Party Congress: "As a responsible nuclear weapons state, our Republic will not use a nuclear weapon unless its sovereignty is encroached upon by any aggressive hostile forces with nukes." (That is the quote Reuters and other sources are using; is there an equivalent of "nukes" in the Korean language?)
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Recommended reading: A Murderous History of Korea
- New York Review of Books, May 18, 2017
Especially now, it's important to know the context of the Democratic People's Republic, which, by the way, has been in existence as long as the Soviet Union.
Preventing North Korea's Nuclear Breakout
"North Korea is on the verge of a strategic breakout- quantitatively (by ramping up its warhead numbers) and qualitatively (through mastery of warhead miniaturization and long-range ballistic missiles)- that directly threatens the U.S. homeland."
Download Edward Litwak's book from the Wilson Center (free).
August 18, 2016: North Korea Resumes Plutonium Production
North Korea says it has resumed plutonium production from spent fuel rods and has no plans to stop nuclear tests as long as the United States still "threatens" Pyongyang, Kyodo News reported Wednesday. (story)
- South Korea's military said on Thursday it would conduct its largest ever artillery drill near the border with North Korea, a day after Pyongyang said it had resumed plutonium production and would continue nuclear tests. (more)
June 14, 2016, Reuters Exclusive: North Korea may be 'significantly' upping nuclear bomb output Kim Jong Un may have a total of 13 to 21- or even more- nuclear bombs already... And, "the estimate did not take into account the possible production of additional highly enriched uranium at a second centrifuge plant thought to exist". In addition, just a week before the report was released, a senior State Department official told Reuters that North Korea had restarted production of plutonium fuel. (story)
"I am the only person who ever looked at all twelve thousand five hundred of our targets. And when I got through I was horrified. Deterrence was a formula for disaster. We escaped disaster by the grace of God. If you ask one person who has lived in this arena his whole career, I have come to one conclusion. This has to end. This must stop. This must be our highest priority."
-Gen. Lee Butler (Ret.), former Commander in Chief, U.S. Strategic Command
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