Dossier: The Trump Administration and US Nuclear Posture

Feb. 12, 2018:
Trump's Latest Remarks on the US Nuclear Arsenal
"We're modernizing and creating a brand new nuclear force. And frankly, we have to do it because others are doing it. If they stop, we'll stop. But they're not stopping. So, if they're not gonna stop, we're gonna be so far ahead of everybody else in nuclear like you've never seen before. And I hope they stop. And if they do, we'll stop in two minutes. And frankly, I'd like to get rid of a lot of 'em. And if they want to do that, we'll go along with them. We won't lead the way, we'll go along with them... But we will always be number one in that category, certainly as long as I'm president. We're going to be far, far in excess of anybody else." (ref)

For Immediate Release, January 12, 2018:
Draft Nuclear Posture Review Degrades National Security
Yesterday evening the Huffington Post posted a leaked draft of the Trump Administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). This review is the federal government's highest unclassified nuclear weapons policy document, and the first since the Obama Administration's April 2010 NPR.
This Review begins with "Many hoped conditions had been set for deep reductions in global nuclear arsenals, and, perhaps, for their elimination. These aspirations have not been realized. America's strategic competitors have not followed our example. The world is more dangerous, not less." The NPR then points to Russia and China's ongoing nuclear weapons modernization programs and North Korea's "nuclear provocations." It concludes, "We must look reality in the eye and see the world as it is, not as we wish it be."
If the United States government were to really "look reality in the eye and see the world as it is", it would recognize that it is failing miserably to lead the world toward the abolition of the only class of weapons that is a true existential threat to our country. As an obvious historic matter, the U.S. is the first and only country to use nuclear weapons. Since WWII the U.S. has threatened to use nuclear weapons in the Korean and Viet Nam wars, and on many other occasions.
Further, it is hypocritical to point to Russia and China's "modernization" programs as if they are taking place in a vacuum. The U.S. has been upgrading its nuclear arsenal all along. In the last few years our country has embarked on a $1.7 trillion modernization program to completely rebuild its nuclear weapons production complex and all three legs of its nuclear triad.
Moreover, Russia and China's modernization programs are driven in large part by their perceived need to preserve strategic stability and deterrence.. (continue reading)

The new NPR is a shopping list, not a strategy.
"The nuclear bureaucracy is taking advantage of Trump's ignorance to push new weapons and old nuclear war-fighting plans retired with the Cold War. The new NPR is a shopping list, not a strategy." - Joe Cirincione, January 11, 2018

"This logic is insane." - New York Times editorial, commenting on the draft NPR, and specifically on the plans to build "more usable" low-yield nuclear weapons in order to strengthen 'deterrence', January 13, 2018 (source)

October 29, 2017:
Hints The Nuclear Posture Review Will Be Designed For War-Fighting
The Guardian reports:
Among the new elements under consideration are a low-yield warhead intended for battlefield use in Europe; bringing back nuclear Tomahawk sea-launched cruise missiles; a loosening of conditions in which the US would use nuclear weapons; and preparations for resumption of nuclear testing. (ref)
Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, in an interview with Knoxville News Sentinel, October 9, "As I said, these weapons are not going to stop aging. So, the challenge is, we get further and further away from the last nuclear test. So maybe we make a drastic change. We go back to testing".
VP Mike Pence said at Minot AFB: "There's no greater force for peace in the world than the United States nuclear arsenal." (ref)

September 2017:
Defense Secretary now supports all 3 legs of the nuclear triad
Defense Secretary James Mattis has now said that the U.S. needs to keep all three of its methods of delivering nuclear weapons, acknowledging his views on the nuclear triad have changed. (more, The Hill)

June14, 2017:
Mattis "Open To Rethinking" New ICBMs and Nuclear Cruise Missiles
Pressed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who opposes the planned nuclear cruise missile (LRSO), Defense Secretary Mattis told a Senate Budget Hearing June 14 he's open to rethinking the triad, as well as the LRSO.
Mattis said he would be consulting with former Defense Secretary William Perry, who has advocated eliminating one leg of the triad by phasing out the land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. Perry met with Mattis on the day of the hearing, and later tweeted, "Very wide ranging, candid, and productive discussion with Sec Def Mattis at the Pentagon today."
Perry is also strongly opposed to developing new nuclear cruise missiles, which he says are "uniquely destabilizing" weapons, because an adversary cannot tell a conventional missile from a nuclear-armed version, risking miscalculation in a crisis.
"I register loud and clear the potential destabilizing view that some people see this weapon bringing and I'm taking that on board," Mattis said. (story ref)
Note that both ICBMs and the nuclear cruise missiles - the two weapons systems most frequently seen by experts as unnecessary and dangerous, are Air Force systems, and that Heather Wilson, a long time pal of the weapons contractors, is now Secretary of the Air Force.

May, 2017:
Where will the Trump Administration Take US Nuclear Weapons Policies?
The new administration's attitude and policies on nuclear weapons are clearly a work in progress. Trump's own pronouncements on the subject have been spotty and sometimes seem contradictory. He has called for a new Nuclear Policy Review to be delivered later this year. The last NPR was done in 2010.
President Trump's perceived enthusiasm for upending the status quo, along with a lack of clear indications where he wants to take it, have invited influencers to try and guide his developing policies. Certain quarters are pressing for production of 'more usable' nukes- tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use.
The Defense Science Board, in an unpublished December report obtained by CQ Roll Call, urges the president to consider altering existing and planned U.S. armaments to achieve a greater number of lower-yield weapons that could provide a "tailored nuclear option for limited use." (see: Pentagon Panel Urges Trump Team to Expand Nuclear Options)
"Experts on the Pentagon panel and elsewhere say the board's goal is to further increase the number of smaller-scale nuclear weapons- and the ways they can be delivered- in order to deter adversaries, primarily Russia, from using nuclear weapons first."
The problem being that Russia has spoken of "escalate to de-escalate", which is to say if you are losing to superior conventional forces on a regional battlefield, use a tactical nuclear weapon to stop further hostilities. The Panel wants to give commanders the option of responding in kind rather than having to choose between strategic warfare or backing down. (CQ report)

For immediate release, May 19, 2017:
A Preview of Trump's Budget: More Nuclear Bombs and Plutonium Pit Production
Santa Fe, NM. "The proposed level of funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA)'s Total Weapons Activities is $10.2 billion, a full billion above what was requested for FY 2017. In March, Trump's "skinny budget" stated NNSA's funding priorities as 'moving toward a responsive nuclear infrastructure', and 'advancing the existing warhead life extension programs'.
"Concerning Life Extension Programs, rather than merely maintaining and extending the lives of existing nuclear weapons as advertised, they are being given new military capabilities, despite denials at the highest levels of government. A current example is the B61-12 Life Extension Program, which is transforming a "dumb" nuclear bomb into the world's first highly accurate "smart" nuclear bomb.
"With respect to the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), "responsive infrastructure" no doubt means accelerating upgrades to existing plutonium facilities and likely building two or three new underground "modules", all for the purpose of quadrupling plutonium pit production from 20 to 80 pits per year. (Plutonium pits are the fissile cores of nuclear weapons.)"
Read the full press release for all the details.
Update:
Nukewatch's comprehensive analysis will be published in the first week of June. In the meantime, some key elements:
FY 2018 Budget Justification / FY 2018 Budget Request for NNSA
DOE Laboratory Tables / NNSA Federal Salaries and Expenses, Weapons Activities...