Nuclear Weapons:
Trump’s FY 2027 budget is expected at the end of this month, where he has said that he will add a half-trillion to the already $1 trillion military budget, primarily for Golden Dome. It will probably be topline numbers only, with details to dribble out over weeks. On top of this there will likely be supplemental appropriations for the U.S.-Israel assault on Iran.
Post-New START, U.S. headed to MIRVING land-based ICBMs: 3/6/26 Exchange Monitor reports that a March 3, 2026 Minuteman III flight test launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base (formerly AFB) to the Kwajalein Atoll had two warheads. Under the now-expired New START, the U.S. previously limited land-based ICBMs to one warhead each. “Multiple Independently-targeted Reentry Vehicles” are regarded as particularly dangerous and destabilizing since land-based solos are fixed, known targets inviting preemptive strike and/or use them or lose them scenarios. The ICBM fields in the Upper Mid-West are meant in part to act as a “nuclear sponge” for incoming Russian warheads.
AI Opted to Use Nuclear Weapons 95% of the Time During War Games: Researcher www.commondreams.org/news/ai-nuclear-war-simulation Feb 25, 2026
“There was little sense of horror or revulsion at the prospect of all out nuclear war, even though the models had been reminded about the devastating implications.”
An artificial intelligence researcher conducting a war games experiment with three of the world’s most used AI models found that they decided to deploy nuclear weapons in 95% of the scenarios he designed.
AI Opted to Use Nuclear Weapons 95% of the Time During War Games: Researcher
NNSA’s FY 2025 Performance Evaluation Report for LANL made clear the Lab’s growing involvement with artificial intelligence.
Plutonium pit production:
NNSA is directing LANL to double plutonium pit production to at least 60 pits per year. This is largely due to ongoing delays and cost escalation at the Savannah River Site. At the same time the Department of Energy is lowering worker safety regulations (see https://nukewatch.org/press-release-item/department-of-energy-seeks-to-eliminate-radiation-protections-requiring-controls-as-low-as-reasonably-achievable/ from last November):
NNSA is also reportedly eliminating the “diamond stamp” certification for individual plutonium pits and instead certifying “processes.” National Environmental Policy Act requirements are being quashed as well. In short, it looks like NNSA and LANL are trying to cut corners and remove all speed bumps for plutonium pit production, which is being prioritized above everything else.
Accelerating Arms Race (in addition to the U.S.-Israel assault on Iran, it’s unfortunately been a busy month):
Iran will target Israeli nuclear site if regime change is sought, Iranian official says https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-will-target-israeli-nuclear-site-if-regime-change-is-sought-iranian-2026-03-04/
Iran will target the Israeli nuclear site of Dimona if Israel and the U.S. seek regime change in the Islamic Republic, semi-official ISNA news agency reported on Wednesday, citing an Iranian military official.
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Allegations of a Chinese nuclear blast may reignite weapons testing
As new global arms race looms, accusation highlights limits to monitoring low-yield tests
In the afternoon on 22 June 2020, a seismic station in eastern Kazakhstan registered two small earthquakes 12 seconds apart near China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site. Closely spaced jolts can arise from underground explosions followed by a cavity collapse, or simply from earthquakes. But U.S. officials this month asserted the shaking was from a clandestine nuclear detonation—an accusation that could sound the starting gun for a new global arms race.
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Exclusive: US intelligence agencies tie Chinese explosive test to push for a completely new nuclear arsenal
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-new-technology, Feb 20, 2026
US intelligence agencies believe that China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons and has conducted at least one covert explosive test in recent years as part of a broader push to completely transform its nuclear arsenal into the world’s most technologically advanced, according to multiple sources familiar with the US intelligence assessments.
The US assessment of China’s intention to radically advance its nuclear weapons is fueling debate inside the intelligence community and beyond over whether there has been a shift in Beijing’s thinking on nuclear strategy, the sources said. The investment in its nuclear arsenal is pushing China closer to peer status with Russia and the US and could yield technical capabilities neither of the two dominant nuclear powers currently possess.
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Institute for Study of War
Kim Jong Un reaffirmed the centrality of nuclear weapons to North Korea’s deterrence strategy and outlined plans to expand North Korea’s nuclear arsenal during the 9th Party Congress, a continuation of his 8th Party Congress objectives. North Korean state media released a report on February 20 and 21 that established Kim’s “uncompromising” stance on maintaining its nuclear capabilities. Kim mentioned the enactment of the 2022 Nuclear Force Policy Law, which states that an attack against senior leadership or the nuclear command and control (C2) system would result in an automatic North Korean nuclear attack against the perpetrator. Kim also formalized the “nuclear trigger” system, established in 2023, which is intended to provide a more systematic approach to nuclear decision-making during periods of crisis. This system would allow for “automatic” retaliation against nuclear threats, which echoes other statements Kim made pushing for the development of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven military technology. Kim’s statements at the 9th Party Congress expanded on his remarks at the 8th Party Congress, where he called for the development of a nuclear deterrent.
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Finland to lift full ban on hosting nuclear arms, government says https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/finland-lift-full-ban-hosting-nuclear-arms-government-says-2026-03-05/
HELSINKI, March 5 (Reuters) – Finland plans to lift a long-standing ban on having nuclear arms on its territory, the government said on Thursday, aligning with Nordic neighbours in a move that could open the door to deploying atomic bombs on Finnish soil during times of war.
Finland’s Nuclear Energy Act, passed in 1987, prohibits the import, manufacture, possession and detonation of nuclear explosives on its soil, seen by some Finns as a clause that would benefit only Russia if there ever was a war.
