“There is no prospect of deploying a missile defense system within the next 15 years that could reliably protect against even a limited but effective raid intended to coerce the United States, let alone a substantial attack by an emerging ballistic missile state such as North Korea or a major attack by Russia or China.
Current ground-based systems struggle against even relatively small and unsophisticated missile threats. Increasing the number of interceptors (or kill vehicles) to attempt to address more sophisticated missile threats, including more sophisticated countermeasures, would be costly and unlikely to stay ahead of the offensive capability. Space-based interceptors will not solve this problem, given their extremely unfavorable cost-exchange ratio and the many straightforward countermeasures an adversary could use. The conclusion of the 2012 National Research Council study that the United States should not invest any more money or resources in systems for boost-phase missile defense remains valid.
…midcourse intercept is and will remain ineffective against limited but sophisticated missile attacks. The United States should shift resources and attention to diplomatic efforts to reduce the nuclear threat, the only approach that has been successful in the past.”
By: Frederick Lamb and Laura Grego, WAR ON THE ROCKS | October 15, 2026 warontherocks.com
For as long as nuclear-armed, intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles have existed, strategists and engineers have pursued a seductive idea: a shield effective enough to diminish — or even block — a ballistic missile attack. The appeal is obvious. A state that could reliably intercept ballistic missiles could protect its cities from these terrifying weapons and reduce its adversaries’ leverage.
But defenses against strategic ballistic missiles have a long history of disappointments. Over roughly seven decades, the United States has spent more than $500 billion (in 2025 dollars) on missile defenses, much of it to defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles. And yet, the ability of any of these systems to intercept even a single missile or warhead under the conditions expected during a nuclear attack has not been demonstrated.
Most recently, the Trump administration has proposed “Golden Dome” — an ambitious proposal for a comprehensive, layered defense with ground, sea, and space-based elements…