NCI Virtual Briefing on results from the Study to Estimate Radiation Doses and Cancer Risks Resulting from Radioactive Fallout from the Trinity Nuclear Test


“The data suggest that perhaps several hundred cancers, primarily thyroid cancer, have already occurred over the 75 years since the test and a small number are projected to occur in the future that would not have occurred in the absence of radiation exposure from Trinity fallout. Most of the excess cancers are projected to have occurred or will occur among residents living in Guadalupe, Lincoln, San Miguel, Socorro, and Torrance counties in 1945. Significant uncertainty in dose estimation had a substantial impact on the total uncertainty around these estimates. Most cancers that have occurred or will occur among the 1945 residents of New Mexico are likely to be cancers unrelated to exposures from Trinity fallout. Finally, with the data available, it is not possible to definitively identify the specific individuals whose cancers might be due to the radiation exposure.

The limitations of the dose estimation and risk projections are due to several factors, including accuracy of the recall of childhood diet by elderly focus group participants 70 years after the incident, the small number of focus group participants, and the possible differences between the experiences of the select focus group participants and that of all persons alive at the time of the test, the lack of cancer rates from New Mexico for the time period of interest. As a result, there is great uncertainty in the estimates of radiation doses and number of cancer cases possibly attributable to the test, thus no firm estimates can be established.

We invite you to join us in the afternoon on September 1st for an hour-long video conference via WebEx with the NCI study team. We will show a short video describing the findings and respond to your questions. A call-in option will also be available. We are planning a second video conference for the following week to address any additional questions. We will be back in touch to confirm that date and time.

In order to streamline the Q&A (we will use the ‘chat’ function on WebEx to collect questions), and ensure that all can see the video and slides, we strongly encourage you to participate via computer. However, if you cannot login from your computer, there will also be an option to listen and ask questions by phone.

The briefing will be open to both community stakeholders and advocates and congressional staff, as the research team has been sharing updates on the study progress over the years with stakeholders and staff jointly. Please share the RSVP link with others who may not be copied on this email message.

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