Nuclear weapons
Air Force Weighs Keeping 1970s-Era Missiles Until 2050
The US Air Force is considering contingency plans that would extend the life of 1970s-era intercontinental ballistic missiles by 11 more years to 2050 if delays continue to plague the new Sentinel models intended to replace them. The current plan is to remove all 400 Minuteman III ICBMs made by Boeing Co. from silos by 2039… The Sentinel was projected last year to be deployed starting in May 2029. The first test flight was once projected for December 2023, but fiscal 2025 budget documents indicated a slip to February 2026.
The estimated cost of the new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), originally at ~$110 billion, is now north of $180 billion. And this is before recognition of the immensity of supplying new command and control communications and recent consideration that its hardened silos may have to be replaced. IMHO it’s a propitious time to argue again for eliminating the land-based ICBM leg of the Triad. After all, one of its stated purposes is to act as a “nuclear sponge” for incoming Russian warheads. The odds of that are not zero and may increase if ICBMs are uploaded with multiple warheads after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in February 2026. More temptation for a preemptive first strike.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/nuclear-weapons-tests-comeback-threats
Calls to restart nuclear weapons tests stir dismay and debate among scientists
A U.S. return to underground detonations would have wide-ranging implications
Secret Pentagon memo on China, homeland has Heritage fingerprints
An internal guidance memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth focuses on deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense. In some instances, the document is nearly a word-for-word facsimile of a report from the conservative think tank behind Project 2025.
Energy secretary reduces regulations on national labs construction
The Department of Energy released an order a week ago that it says will lift “burdensome” permitting requirements and jump-start infrastructure improvements at national laboratories.
What does the order do? The main change mandated by the order is only requiring independent project reviews on construction projects that cost between $300 million and $1 billion at “specific critical decision points.”
The order also revises the delegated project authority for labs from $50 million to $300 million and calls for expanded use of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s “OSHA-plus” framework, which according to the order aims to meet worker safety and health requirements with a “tailored, graded approach” in an effort to increase competition and reduce costs.
NukeWatch’s posted comment notes how DOE and the NNSA have been on the independent Government Accountability Office’s “High Risk List” for project mismanagement ever since the list was started in 1991. Massive cost overruns are the rule, not the exception. Moreover, the NNSA constantly ignores GAO’s recommendations for basic good governance, such as an “Integrated Master Schedule” for plutonium “pit” bomb core production, its most expensive and complex program ever.
Trump/Musk: Trump got his Continuing Resolution (CR) for the rest of the year, rather than Congress getting it together for an omnibus appropriation bill or partially shutting down the federal government on March 15. This means the federal government will run on FY 2024 budget levels through September 30, 2025. However, there are “anomalies”, one being a $185 million increase for nuclear weapons programs paid for by a corresponding cut to nonproliferation programs. This also means no individual or “omnibus” appropriations bills for FY 2025. It will be the first time that the government runs on a Continuing Resolution for an entire fiscal year.
Now that the FY 2025 budget is (not) taken care of, the FY 2026 budget is expected sometime in May. This one will probably really be a doozy as the first totally under Trump’s thumbprint.
Accelerating Arms Race:
Poland’s president urges US to move nuclear warheads to Polish territory
Poland’s president has called on the US to transfer nuclear weapons to Polish territory as a deterrent against future Russian aggression, a request that is likely to be perceived as highly provocative in Moscow. Andrzej Duda said it was “obvious” that President Donald Trump could redeploy US nuclear warheads stored in western Europe or the US to Poland, a proposal the Polish president said he recently discussed with Keith Kellogg, US special envoy for Ukraine.
Get Ready for the Next Nuclear Age
As the second Trump administration rapidly dismantles crucial elements of the postwar international order, it seems not to have considered some obvious possible consequences of its actions—such as the triggering of a new round of nuclear proliferation, this time not by terrorists or rogues but by the countries formerly known as U.S. allies… If the liberal order falls, the nonproliferation regime would fall with it. And the powers rushing for nukes then would be newly orphaned friends of the United States who are no longer convinced they can rely on American security guarantees, and might even have to fear American coercion.
Germany Is Rethinking Everything Nuclear
The incoming German government, rattled by the prospect of U.S. President Donald Trump withdrawing security guarantees, is preparing a fundamental readjustment of its defense posture. The new coalition of Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) has already agreed to push for changes to the debt brake that would pave the way to dramatically higher military spending. Germany’s likely next chancellor, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, stated that “in view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent,” the government’s new motto needs to be “whatever it takes.”