Nuclear ‘Modernization’

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How Congress Can Stop Worrying and Learn to Govern the Bomb: A New Era of Congressional Responsibilities in Nuclear Weapons Policy

“It is long past time for Congress to reinvigorate our oversight of nuclear weapons policies. In this Essay, I will argue that Congress has been overly deferential to claims from the nuclear enterprise and has fallen short in its oversight of nuclear weapons policies by inadequately weighing and evaluating costs and risks.

Although Congress has tools to influence nuclear strategy and oversee the development and employment of America’s nuclear arsenal, in recent years, Congress has failed to use them effectively. For example, a recent Strategic Posture Review was conducted by a bipartisan congressional commission but failed to evaluate the key constraint at the core of congressional responsibilities: cost. As others have observed, the report “does not account for the major fiscal, logistical, and political constraints that would inhibit implementation of its recommendations.” In other examples, Congress has failed to hold hearings on the status of the severely delayed, over-budget Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (“ICBM”) program.”

Rep. John Garamendi[*] | January 24, 2026 ucs.org

Abstract

Since the development of the first nuclear weapons, policymakers have been forced to grapple with the implications of their extraordinary destructive potential. Congress, with its constitutional remit on matters of war and peace, has responsibility to shape the development of policies which govern nuclear weapons, including in their acquisition and use. In the decades following the invention of nuclear weapons, Congress has at times taken active roles in oversight of nuclear weapons policy and programs in accordance with its constitutional prerogatives. However, in part due to Congress’s structure, this oversight has recently tended towards dictating programmatic minutiae rather than addressing the strategic questions about the role that nuclear weapons should play in the national security of the United States. On such an important political issue, Congress must engage in fulsome debate and take an active role in shaping policy regarding the role of nuclear weapons in our security, society, and international relations.

I. Introduction

A. The Beginning of the Modern Era

Eighty years ago, nuclear weapons were used in war for the first and only time.1 The horrific death toll made clear that nuclear weapons enabled destruction at a scale that was previously unthinkable.2 Once such destructive capabilities were available, governments faced new questions about the future of these weapons.

Nuclear weapons have unique attributes, particularly in the scale of their destructiveness, which left policymakers and military planners struggling to understand what strategic role these weapons would play in global defense.3 In democracies, where civil-military norms have often emphasized a split between political leaders who set war objectives and military leaders who manage the conduct of war, nuclear weapons posed a particular challenge by erasing the line between political and military decisions.4

Today, policymakers still grapple with these questions. I will argue that one conclusion has become increasingly clear through these debates: nuclear weapons are not merely military weapons. Their capacity to destroy makes them, by some assessments, “useless” as military implements since their use would far exceed most rational military objectives.5 They are instead “strategic” weapons whose use rests at the heart of existential political decisions for countries and their governments. As I will discuss below, these unique characteristics remain at the core of debates about their management.6

Nuclear Weapons Issues & The Accelerating Arms Race: January 2026

American imperialism:

On the U.S. raid on Venezuela to oust Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president:

Stephen Miller, Donald Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security advisor, told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday January 5, 2026:

“We live in a world in which you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else, but we live in a world—in the real world, Jake—that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world that have existed since the beginning of time.”

The “Donroe Doctrine” is a more aggressive Trumpian take on the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, a foreign policy approach focused on unilateral U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. How far does this administration intend to force this new doctrine?

DOE now department of nuclear weapons and Venezuelan oil: The Trump administration engaged the Department of Energy (DOE) and Secretary Chris Wright to oversee the seizure and marketing of Venezuelan oil following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. intends to control Venezuelan oil, aiming to sell 30–50 million barrels of accumulated, sanctioned crude to the American people.

Greenland:

Trump describes Greenland as an “absolute necessity” for national security and the defense of the Arctic.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that the president believes Greenland is “essential for the Golden Dome missile shield.” https://www.wcvb.com/article/greenland-trump-explainer/70097863

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Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) Town Hall December 3rd, 2025 – Thoughts from Nuclear Watch New Mexico:

The LANL Director mentioned Non-proliferation is a big part of their work. However, the Nuclear Nonproliferation program budget is a mere 6.5% of the total Lab budget (Nuclear Weapons is 84%, with a Billion dollar increase for FY26). https://nukewatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/FY26-Lab-Table-spreadsheets-Chart-1.pdf Nuclear Nonproliferation is a valuable program that LANL does well, and its funding should not be cut to provide more money for nuclear weapons production (literally the opposite of nonproliferation). The Nuclear Nonproliferation budget should be increased, especially if the Lab director agrees on its importance. NukeWatch NM is entirely supportive of LANL’s Sealed Sources program, which serves as the nation’s lead for collecting potentially dangerous radioactive materials that are no longer needed, securing them, and ensuring they don’t fall into the wrong hands, protecting communities and enhancing security.

On the discussion of AI missions at the lab:

The lab is partnering with NVIDIA for their hardware and ChatGPT/Open AI for their models. “The goal is to harness the power of the next evolution of high performance computing and apply it to our national security science and technology. Big development on this front is the “genesis” mission…” and in an answer to a question, want to “use artificial intelligence to [for example] help us develop the molecules that could deliver a therapeutic isotope to a cancer cell with high specificity so that when that undergoes radioactive decay the decay products basically kill the cancer cell but no surrounding tissue”

Again, the lab’s nuclear weapons budget ate up almost all else this year – how does the lab propose to work on this kind of work when its’ science budget is less than 1%? How will this advancement of AI be applied to our national security science and technology in terms of nuclear weapons? NukeWatch has serious concerns and questions regarding the tangible risks associated with integrating commercial AI infrastructure to be with active national security and nuclear defense programs. Beyond this, a $1.25 billion advanced computing campus is planned in Michigan to support far-away Los Alamos Lab in high-performance computing and AI research.
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“A House of Dynamite” New Netflix Nuclear Catastrophe Film: Fiction, for Now

The reviews are rolling in for “A House of Dynamite,” which premiered in Europe earlier this month before coming to the U.S. on October 10th, with a full Netflix release scheduled for the 24th. Here’s the trailer, and see the schedule for Santa Fe theater showings here:

This Week! Santa Fe Theater Screenings for the Film “A House of Dynamite”

I attended one of these screenings last night, and I’ll let the professional critic reviews give the gist:

The Kathryn Bigelow thriller looks at what might happen if a ballistic missile were headed to the U.S. The director hopes the movie will start a conversation. New York Times: At Venice, ‘A House of Dynamite’ Is Scarier Than Most Horror Films


“The Netflix thriller captures from multiple perspectives the White House response to an unattributed missile launch headed for a major U.S. city in the harrowing 20 minutes until projected impact…”An unrelenting chokehold thriller so controlled, kinetic and unsettlingly immersive that you stagger out at the end of it wondering if the world will still be intact.” ‘A House of Dynamite’ Review: Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson in Kathryn Bigelow’s Precision-Tooled, Viscerally Unsettling Nail-Biter


“Told from the perspective of soldiers at a remote Alaskan missile base, staffers in the White House situation room, military officials at US Central Command (CENTCOM), and the president of the United States, the film weaves an overlapping timeline to show how the United States would respond to a missile attack…The film doesn’t want viewers to ask themselves how to thwart a nuclear attack on the United States. Rather, it wants the viewer to question the value of having nuclear weapons at all. ‘None of this makes sense,’ the President (Idris Elba) bemoans, ‘Making all these bombs and all these plans.'”

A House of Dynamite is a terrifying examination of how terribly wrong things can go even with highly competent people in charge…But that’s also not necessarily the world we’re living in…The film shows why the worst can happen, even when competent, well-meaning people are trying to do the right thing.

But what if competence and decency are in short supply?” A House of Dynamite: Bigelow’s latest thriller shows why nuclear bombs are only part of the danger

This film left me reeling with tension and anxiety and exactly as the Times article titles it, is scarier than most horror films. Unlike ‘Oppenheimer,’ which largely glorified the invention of the atomic weapon, ‘A House of Dynamite’ makes it impossible to ignore the threat that nuclear weapons pose to our world. Working backwards from perspectives, and focused on how we can actually improve our odds of keeping this story a fictional one, here is what struck me most about this film:

    1. Only one person decides what happens. But the real threat isn’t one reckless leader — it’s a reckless system. The final segment of the film features the “nuclear football” heavily, a briefcase containing launch procedures and options. In the United States, the president holds the sole and absolute authority to order the use of nuclear weapons. In the film, there are many voices in the President’s ear, but two primary perspectives quickly emerge after the defense fails and the ICBM remains inbound to its U.S. target: “One side advocates a retaliatory strike; the other, nothing. ‘It’s surrender or suicide,’ one adviser tells the President,” – thebulletin.org. The military aide carrying the nuclear football is tasked with providing the President the list of options if retaliation is chosen. An absolute must-read, Daniel Ellsberg’s book “The Doomsday Machine” breaks down many of the themes in the film with pure and terrifyingly honest account of Cold War-era nuclear strategy. In terms of launch authority, he describes how the inherent instability of the delegated command structure of the nuclear apparatus makes accidental or unwanted war an ever-present danger.

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August 6th U.S. Atomic Bombing of Hiroshima Commemoration in Santa Fe

Eighty Years Later, it is Beyond Time to Get Rid of Nuclear Weapons.

Last week on August 6, 2025, the 80th anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima, community members gathered at the Center for Progress and Justice on Cerrillos Road in Santa Fe to honor the solemn occasion and demand an end to the ongoing nuclear weapons harm and destruction that first began here in New Mexico.

The event was organized by Nuclear Watch New Mexico in collaboration with the Up in Arms campaign by Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry's, to reduce military and nuclear weapons spending, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (winners of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize), the Santa Fe Archdiocese, the Back from the Brink New Mexico Hub, and the Tularosa Basin Downwinders Consortium. It centered around a massive public art installation from Up in Arms of a towering cubic structure framed by messages on top of images of $100 bills. The structure is sized to literally hold $100 billion of those bills, respresenting what the U.S. spends every year on nuclear weapons (the total cost of nuclear weapons "modernization" is up to $2 trillion). Visible to thousands of drivers each day, the large installation pressures viewers to reckon with the scale of this cost and to imagine what else those resources could make possible. A prominent message on one of the four sides quotes the president in saying, "'We don't need to build brand new ones. We already have so many,' — Donald Trump" and below it, "His budget includes a down payment of $2 trillion of nuclear weapons." Another side reads, "The current U.S. nuclear arsenal is the equivalent of 50,00 Hiroshima explosions. One nuclear bomb killed over 100,000 people in Hiroshima."

The installation will remain on display for the foreseeable future, GO SEE IT NOW! 1420 Cerrillos Road, Santa Fe, NM 87505.

During the event, speakers Archbishop John C. Wester (by video from Japan), Tina Cordova of the Tularosa Basin Downwinders, Sophie Stroud from Nuclear Watch New Mexico, Anne Pierce-Jones from Back from the Brink, Ben Cohen representing Up in Arms, and Seth Shelden from ICAN all gave concrete steps and actions that concerned citizens can take to help promote a safer world. The speakers were presented by former Santa Fe County Commissioner Anna Hansen, who stated, “Disarmament is the only answer. I have spent my life working to end the nuclear cycle, as many have, and most of us in this room have never known a world without nuclear weapons.”

Speakers drew connections between the devastation in Hiroshima and the continued production of plutonium pits at LANL. At Los Alamos National Lab alone, five billion dollars will be poured into nuclear weapons programs in Fiscal Year 2026, starting this October. One billion dollars was added to last year’s budget, which includes a 42% increase for nuclear warheads. At the same time, nonproliferation programs are being cut, the science budget sliced in half, and funds for renewable energy zeroed out and gone completely. The push for "modernization" of the US’s nuclear arsenal is directly linked to plutonium pit production at Los Alamos, specifically expanding plutonium pit production. LANL will receive $1.7 billion in direct costs for pit production in 2026. Add in the indirect costs, and it’s roughly double that. All of this future pit production is exorbitantly expensive, yet the National Nuclear Security Administration still has no credible cost estimate for these plans.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: New plutonium pits are not needed to maintain the existing stockpile - it is all for future, new designs. And these new weapons cannot be tested because of the testing moratorium - or conversely could pressure the US to resume testing. In 2006, independent experts concluded that existing plutonium pits last at least a century. Their average age now is about 43 years. A new pit aging study is expected this year. Expansion plans should stop until then.

The U.S.’s $2 trillion “modernization” program is a plan to keep nuclear weapons forever. It is claimed to be essential for “deterrence.” But deterrence relies upon the flawed assumption that all actors will behave rationally, and that accidents or miscalculations will never occur. History says otherwise. Moreover, the U.S. and Russia have always rejected minimal deterrence in favor of nuclear warfighting capabilities that could end civilization overnight. That is why we have 1,000s of nuclear weapons and are funneling billions of dollars into mass death machines, even though everybody knows that a nuclear war must never be fought and can never be won.

See more on the myth of deterrance here:

Deterrence is the Threat: NukeWatch Presentation for Western New Mexico University – April 1, 2025

Media coverage of the event includes the Santa Fe New Mexican articles below:

New Mexico reckons with its role in Japan’s atomic devastation on 80th anniversary of Hiroshima

‘End the nuclear cycle’: Antinuclear New Mexicans speak out 80 years after Hiroshima bombing

View the full event recording - Click HERE or below:

Full Event Recording: Press Conference & Commemoration – Hiroshima Atomic Bombing 80th Anniversary Event (August 6, 2025)

View the photo gallery here:

NukeWatch in DC Advocating for Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation

Your Nuclear Watch New Mexico team has just returned from a weeklong trip to Washington D.C. (we went so you don’t have to!). The Alliance for Nuclear Accountability (ANA) hosts an annual “DC Days” conference and following Spring Meeting, and we proudly joined as part of a record number of groups this year. Over 60 individuals from 30+ organizations journeyed to DC to advocate for nuclear weapons disarmament, nuclear energy, and waste policy on behalf of the frontline nuclear communities we represent. Members were present from groups representing the entire U.S. nuclear complex, including sites in Georgia, New Mexico, Tennessee, California, Missouri, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and beyond. NukeWatch NM brought all three staff members—Jay Coghlan, Scott Kovac, and Sophia Stroud (whose participation was made possible by a youth scholarship from ANA)—to participate in DC Days and the subsequent two-day spring meeting. The ANA DC Days schedule included over 70 meetings with senators, representatives, and other relevant agencies, such as the Department of Energy, the Government Accountability Office, and the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. Our NukeWatch team attended nearly 30 of these meetings. The Alliance for Nuclear Accountability put together a new report to present our “asks” to congress as a coalition, including analysis and recommendations for nuclear weapons, nuclear waste, and nuclear energy policy and funding. Please click HERE for the full report, and HERE for a short summary.

I was glad to see increased representation from Nevada this year, and especially Indigenous representation. In light of the current administration’s attacks on Environmental Justice, it is more important than ever that ANA as a whole, as well as individual member groups, continue to prioritize uplifting Native American voices, not only because of their deep cultural, spiritual, and social connections to the land, including sacred sites and traditional knowledge essential to religious freedom and access, but also because of the violent legacy and ongoing reality of nuclear colonialism, in which Indigenous lands and peoples have been deliberately and disproportionately targeted in the nuclear industry with uranium mining, nuclear weapons testing and production, and the disposal of radioactive waste. To learn more about Nuclear Colonialism, see: www.networkadvocates.org/downwinders and read Nuclear Nuevo México: Colonialism and the Effects of the Nuclear Industrial Complex on Nuevomexicanos by Myrriah Gómez.

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Plutonium Pit PEIS Scoping Hearing Presentation: Slides and Recording

Get Prepared: A coalition of advocacy groups, including Union of Concerned Scientists, Tri-Valley CAREs, and NukeWatch New Mexico recently held a training to help participants prepare effective comments.

Watch the recording here
Password: gP=&0LYZ

Formal Comments on the Draft Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Continued Operation of the Los Alamos National Laboratory

Full NukeWatch LANL SWEIS Comments Out Now!
The LANL SWEIS public comment period has ended, but you can still take action: Use our recent extensive comments as a resource & citizens’ guide to Lab issues.

The National Environmental Policy Act requires the Los Alamos National Laboratory to periodically prepare a new “Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) for Continued Operations.”

Please use NukeWatch NM’s recent extensive comments on the Lab’s new draft SWEIS as a resource and citizens’ guide to Lab issues.

Did you know, for example, that:

• LANL’s nuclear weapons production budget has doubled over the last decade?

• The Lab’s so-called cleanup plan is to “cap and cover” some 200,000 cubic yards of radioactive and toxic waste, leaving them permanently buried as a perpetual threat to groundwater?

• There is a planned intentional release of up to 30,000 curies of radioactive tritium gas, all without a public hearing?

View at: nukewatch.org/formal-comments-on-the-draft-site-wide-environmental-impact-statement-for-continued-operation-of-the-los-alamos-national-laboratory/


 Use our lengthy formal comments as a starting point, toolkit or resource for dissecting ongoing and future issues at LANL!

We encourage you to use our comments to ask for follow-up info, either from us here at NukeWatch or from the Lab, and to demand better accountability and transparency! Use as background or briefing material for local and congressional advocacy.

For example:

  • Cite or excerpt our comments in future public processes under the National Environmental Policy Act. For example, we are expecting that a nationwide programmatic environmental impact statement for plutonium “pit” bomb core production will be announced soon, the result of a lawsuit in which NukeWatch led.
  • Share with those organizing around stopping expanded plutonium pit production and advocating for genuine radioactive and toxic wastes cleanup.
  • Learn about LANL’s proposed electrical transmission line across the environmentally and culturally sensitive Caja del Rio and alternatives that were not considered.
  • The National Environmental Policy Act itself is under assault by the Trump Administration. We expect environmental justice and climate change issues to be stripped from LANL’s final Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement. This needs to be resisted!

NukeWatch NM argued that the draft SWEIS should be withdrawn and a new one issued because:

 • The NNSA has rigged the draft LANL Site-Wide EIS with three self-serving scenarios:

  – Expanded nuclear weapons programs (contradictorily called the “No Action Alternative”).

  – Yet more expanded nuclear weapons programs (“Modernized Operations Alternative”).

– Yet far more expanded nuclear weapons programs (“Expanded Operations Alternative”).

• A Reduced Operations Alternative must be included.

• The SWEIS’ fundamental justification for expanded nuclear weapons programs is “deterrence.” But “deterrence” has always included nuclear warfighting capabilities that could end human civilization overnight.

• The SWEIS purports to align with U.S. obligations under the 1970 NonProliferation Treaty. That is demonstrably false.

• Future plutonium pit production is NOT to maintain the safety and reliability of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile. Instead, it is for new-design nuclear weapons that could lower confidence in stockpile reliability and/or prompt a return to testing.

• The SWEIS’ No-Action Alternative violates the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

• The legally required programmatic environmental impact statement on pit production should be completed first, followed by the LANL SWEIS.

• Plutonium pit reuse should be analyzed as a credible alternative to pit production.

• A recent proposal for a data center at LANL is not in the SWEIS. It raises huge issues of future water and electrical use, the appropriateness of commercial interests at a federal lab, and the possible fusion of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons command and control.

• Recent Executive Orders could strip the final SWEIS of environmental justice and climate change analyses. This must have clarification.

• Planned tritium releases should be fully analyzed.

• The Electrical Power Capacity Upgrade should be analyzed will all credible alternatives.

• The proposed BioSafety Level-3 facility must have its own standalone EIS.

• All Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board concerns should be addressed and resolved.

• Genuine comprehensive cleanup should be a preferred alternative.

• A new SWEIS should follow a new overdue Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis.

The Pentagon considers eight projects part of its nuclear modernization budget: new ICBMs, cruise missiles, updates to submarine-launched missiles, a new stealth bomber, new strategic submarines, updates to existing gravity bombs, modifications to the F-35 fighter jet that allow it to drop nuclear weapons, and updates to the existing Cold War nuclear command-and-control network. Since 2013, Congress has approved about $67 billion for those, according to Forecast International, a data analysis firm owned by Defense One’s parent company. In fiscal 2021, the funding totaled $13 billion, or about 1.8 percent of the Pentagon’s $704 billion budget. 


A Rough Breakdown of the Trillion Dollar Cost of Modernization:

1/3 NNSA

The National Nuclear Security Administration is a semi-autonomous agency within the Department of Energy

Warhead Production

2/3 Department of Defense

Warhead Delivery Systems

  • Land-Based ICBMs
    • 642 (400 to deploy) new ICBMs 
  • SSBNs: Ballistic Missile Submarines
    • 12 new Columbia Class SSBNs
  • Bombers & Air-Launched Cruise Missiles
    • Upgrades to the B-1, the B-2, and the B-52
    • LRSB: 100 new B-21 strategic bombers
    • LRSO: 1000+ nuclear-capable cruise missiles

Warhead Production and 'Life Extension Programs'

Note that the NNSA (National Nuclear Security Administration) runs all weapons related activities under the DOE. Environmental cleanup of wastes from nuclear weapons production is under the jurisdiction of the DOE without NNSA involvement. While the NNSA budget is set to increase, DOE's is set to decrease.

Warhead Delivery Systems

  • New ICBMs (aka GBSD, or Ground-Based-Strategic-Deterrent): This is a contested element of the planned triad modernization. William Perry and others have argued that land-based ICBMs are the one way a computer glitch could end up triggering total nuclear war, and should therefore be eliminated in favor of bombers and SSBNs. Boeing, Northrup Grumman, and Lockheed have submitted bids for the roughly $70 billion job.
  • SSBNs are to be designed and built by Electric Boat in Connecticut. Plans call to build 12, at a cost $5 billion apiece, and no-one knows where those funds will come from. There's been talk of a supplemental Sea-Borne Deterrence Fund; but Air Force wants a similar budgetary trick for its nuclear systems.
  • Bombers: Northrup Grumman is prime contractor on the new B-21 as well as the B-2 upgrade. Boeing is contractor for B1 and B52 upgrades.
  • Long-Range Stand-Off cruise missiles: This is the other most contested of the new systems planned, with many experts calling it dangerous and unnecessary. Air Force has issued a call for bids for 1000+ missiles. Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin are expected to submit bids.

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